The effectiveness of backward contact tracing in networks

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Effective control of an epidemic relies on the rapid discovery and isolation of infected individuals. Because many infectious diseases spread through interaction, contact tracing is widely used to facilitate case discovery and control. However, what determines the efficacy of contact tracing has not been fully understood. Here we reveal that, compared with ‘forward’ tracing (tracing to whom disease spreads), ‘backward’ tracing (tracing from whom disease spreads) is profoundly more effective. The effectiveness of backward tracing is due to simple but overlooked biases arising from the heterogeneity in contacts. We argue that, even if the directionality of infection is unknown, it is possible to perform backward-aiming contact tracing. Using simulations on both synthetic and high-resolution empirical contact datasets, we show that strategically executed contact tracing can prevent a substantial fraction of transmissions with a higher efficiency—in terms of prevented cases per isolation—than case isolation alone. Our results call for a revision of current contact-tracing strategies so that they leverage all forms of bias. It is particularly crucial that we incorporate backward and deep tracing in a digital context while adhering to the privacy-preserving requirements of these new platforms.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftNature Physics
Vol/bind17
Sider (fra-til)652-658
Antal sider7
ISSN1745-2473
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2021

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
We thank M. Girvan, J. Lovato and other organizers of the Net-COVID programme, which initiated the project. We also thank A. Allard, C. Moore, E. Moro, A. S. Pentland and S. V. Scarpino for helpful discussions. L.H.-D. acknowledges support from the National Institutes of Health 1P20 GM125498-01 Centers of Biomedical Research Excellence Award. S.K. and Y.-Y.A. acknowledge support from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under award no. FA9550-19-1-0391.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited part of Springer Nature.

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